Unlocking NBA Stardom: Analytics and Young Player Development

Exploring the three key metrics for player growth, according to Shane Battier

Panels from the last MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference were recently made available as podcasts on Spotify, and I managed to listen to the one about how analytics can greatly assist franchises in their player development efforts.

The panel was expertly conducted by a trio of knowledgeable individuals: Mike Zarren (Boston Celtics), Shane Battier, and Katherine Evans (Washington Wizards).

Shane Battier, renowned for his role as the former Vice President of Analytics and Basketball Development with the Miami Heat, is no stranger to success in the NBA. As a player, he contributed significantly to the Heat's triumph, helping secure two NBA championships during his tenure with the team.

In the beginning of the conference, he said that

[…] in basketball now, there are three numbers that really matter […]: can you make an open shot from two or from three? How well do you finish once you get in the paint, […whether it’s a…] dunk, layup and how often you draw fouls.

If you do all those three things well, you are an Hall of famer! Most All Stars do two of those three things at an elite level, and an NBA player should be doing one of those things above average.

In the context of player development, I was curious to understand which up-and-coming players are capable of maintaining strong performance in these three areas. This would help us determine if there are any individuals on the right path to becoming elite-level players from a young age.

In our case, I will consider all NBA players under the age of 24, regardless of their individual achievements and years of experience in the NBA. Of course, each of these players has followed different career trajectories, and within this age group, we see a range of talent, from role-players to potential MVP candidates. However, it's during this phase of their professional careers that it's easier to shape a player to maximize their strengths and work on minimizing their weaknesses.

We will, therefore, examine three key areas to assess whether there are indeed players under 24 who are on the right path to becoming (or remaining) NBA All-Stars.

Can you make an open shot from two or from three?

Utilizing data from the NBA website on open and wide open shots, we can compare the performance of these players with those considered more seasoned.

First, we'll standardize shooting data per 36 minutes played to ensure a fair comparison. We'll rank all players with a minimum of 500 minutes, 20 wide open shot attempts, and 20 open shot attempts, regardless of age, based on Points per Shot.

We'll begin by ranking them separately, and then combine the rankings for wide open and open shots into a single table to get a more comprehensive idea of these players' ability to finish when left unguarded.

Last year, the league's top performer in wide open shots was Michael Porter Jr., who is 25 years old and therefore considered "too old" for our analysis.

After considering four names, including Kawhi Leonard, the first eligible player is Collin Sexton. He attempted nearly 2 wide open shots per 36 minutes and scored 1.48 points per shot, placing him in the 98th percentile league-wide, regardless of age.

The second eligible player is Blazers' forward Trenton Watford. He also attempted nearly 2 wide open shots per 36 minutes and scored 1.46 points per shot, positioning himself in the 96th percentile.

The podium is completed by Korey Kispert, who over his years with the Washington Wizards has established himself as a valuable offensive role player with an excellent shot.

The chart below illustrates the relationship between wide open shot attempts per 36 minutes and Points per Shot for all eligible players under 24 in the last season: in the chart, the green line represents the 75th percentile of the league, the orange one represents the average, and the red one represents the 25th percentile, below which we find several players not considered great shooters.

Among the players with many attempts and more than sufficient efficiency, we find names like Ball, Hyland, Keegan Murray, and various players known for their offensive propensity.

However, among highly talented and promising players, it is worth noting the unfavorable position of big man Evan Mobley. In the past season, he attempted few wide open shots, scoring only 0.86 points per shot.

When it comes to open shots, those with the closest defender situated between 4 and 6 feet, the names and value distribution change drastically, allowing more space for centers and forwards to shine.

The best among the 353 eligible players of any age last year was DeAndre Jordan, capable of scoring 1.91 points per shot with 1.4 attempts per 36 minutes.

However, the second name on the list is a young one, the Knicks' Jericho Sims, who converted nearly all of his few open shot attempts, approximately 1 per 36 minutes, with efficiency similar to that of DeAndre Jordan.

Following closely is the rookie Walker Kessler, who had a season that exceeded expectations, particularly in terms of his defensive impact throughout the year.

Luka Doncic leads the entire league in the number of open shot attempts, with 9.5 per 36 minutes, completed with an efficiency rate of 1.11 points per shot. This is an above-average statistic and especially impressive when considering the high volume of attempts.

To give a final visual check to the data, it's important to construct a table that displays players capable of staying above average in both shooting categories, although we will later consider combining the two categories to simplify matters.

The list therefore shows players above the 50th percentile in both wide open and open shot categories, along with the number of attempts per 36 minutes.

The Thunder have three players on their roster who fit this criteria: Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Jalen Williams, while the Mavs, Pelicans, and Lakers follow closely with two players each.

Zion and Josh Green stand out, being the only players above the 80th percentile in both categories.

How well do you finish once you get in the paint?

We've considered players with at least 500 minutes, at least 20 shots in the paint outside the restricted area, and 20 shots in the restricted area.

Naturally, this skill is more prevalent among players of a certain size and skillset, but it remains a crucial ability to elevate one's offensive game to the next level.

The leader in paint efficiency last year was Robert Williams, closely followed by Daniel Gafford and Walker Kessler.

Gafford averaged 1.50 points per shot with 8.5 attempts per 36 minutes in the paint, indicating a strong presence in the opponent's area. These numbers are very similar to those of his compatriot playing for the Jazz.

The chart illustrates how there is a group of young elite centers and forwards when it comes to finishing in the paint, even with a significant number of attempts per 36 minutes.

Among guards under 24, Josh Green, Kevin Huerter, and Luka Doncic still stand out, while among forwards, Kenyon Martin Jr. of the Rockets leads the pack.

Among the centers, Mamukelashvili and Koloko are somewhat disappointing, as they manage to score just over 1 point per shot on over 5 attempts per 36 minutes. For them, the upcoming season will need to be a period of growth and redemption if they want to sustain their hopes of remaining in the NBA.

The following table summarizes all the under-24 players who were able to score in the paint above the league average during the last season.

Ultimately, the foul drawing

Last but certainly not least, according to Battier, a good NBA player must represent a significant threat to opposing defenses, consistently drawing fouls throughout a game. Undoubtedly, in this case, the number of fouls drawn increases with one's reputation and experience, as players learn how to cleverly attract as many calls as possible. It's no coincidence that the top names on the list are All-Stars or well-known players.

There are also recognizable names that seemingly struggle to draw enough fouls on themselves, yet they still remain well above the league average, as in the case of Anthony Edwards.

Conclusions!

In conclusion, to assess which young players are on the best path according to the criteria mentioned by Battier, we selected players who have appeared above the league average in all three categories discussed in this analysis.

While it's possible to consider players who excel in two of these categories but not all three, for the sake of maintaining the elite nature of our discussion, I've chosen to set this as the threshold for my research.

The Memphis Grizzlies are the only franchise capable of placing two players on this list, with Santi Aldama and the Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr., certainly in a different phase of his career compared to some of the other players on this list.

The player who manages to stand out in all three categories is undoubtedly Zion Williamson, a player with boundless talent and potential, currently slowed down by a series of unfortunate injuries.

There are names that aren't always in the league's spotlight, such as Trenton Watford, Jonathan Kuminga, or Naz Reid, who is highly regarded as a backup forward/center for the Timberwolves.

The only other two centers on the list are Ayton, who will be part of an even more stacked roster this year, with recent trade rumors surrounding him, and the young Turkish talent, Sengun. Despite not having an exceptional rapport with head coach Silas last year, he will need to seek further recognition next season with the arrival of Ime Udoka, as well as the veterans Van Vleet and Brooks, who carry a strong voice in the locker room.

Certainly, the criteria mentioned by Battier are not the only numbers to consider when discussing player development, but it will be interesting to see if these names can continue to grow and further establish themselves as the future stars of the league in the upcoming season. Player development is a multifaceted process, and these metrics provide valuable insights into the potential and progress of young players. As the season unfolds, we'll eagerly watch how these promising talents continue to evolve and shape the future of the NBA.