Is the NBA reviving the short mid-range?
What do Giddey, Butler, Bane and Hachimura have in common?
The league numbers
For the first time in recent years, despite the fact that the season is not over and therefore we cannot speak with absolute certainty about the phenomenon, the frequency of three-point shooting has dropped, settling from 39.93% last year, the highest figure in NBA history, to 38.73%, a value slightly higher than that recorded in the 2019-20 season.
In contrast, the frequency of shots at the rim stopped its tapering of recent years, recovering one percentage point from last year, rising to 29.87 percent.
If in the 2012-13 season the long mid-range was chosen in 24% of cases and the short mid-range in 18.98%, it is interesting to note that ten years later the long has (ironically..) faded almost permanently, dropping below 10% for the first time in NBA history, and instead the short one continues the recent upward trend by hitting 22.08%.
Ten years ago, 43% of shots came from the mid-range; today, 31.4% do, with the short mid-range, the "floater zone", being employed with increasing frequency by head coaches in their set pieces.
Adebayo, Ayton, but also the new Knicks star Brunson and Turkish sophomore Sengun, as well as Butler, Mobley, and Jokic: these are just a few of the biggest fans of this area of the court, attesting to 37 to 50 percent of their attempts depending on the player.
Fans of the good old long mid-range, don't despair: there are still players who take at least one out of five shots (somebody takes almost one out of every two..) from over 14 feet inside the 3-point line.
DeRozan (45.29% frequency with 46.53% accuracy), CP3 (29% frequency with 41.04% accuracy), but also younger players such as Devin Booker, Hachimura, and Dejounte Murray.
What about accuracy? The FG% at the rim improved since 2012-13, going from 60.56% to a stunning 66.68%.
Short mid-range? Different position, same story: from 38.28 percent to 43.45% ten years ago, and the same goes for the big brother above the 14-foot line but within the three-point range: from 39.51 percent to 42.11%.
Last, but definitely not least: the three-pointer! Quite surprisingly, the league still didn’t crack the code to score three-pointers more efficiently: the league FG% was 35.88% ten years ago, and it sits at 35.96% this season.
Who is leading the way in this trend?
Let's look at which players this year perfectly embody the new trends in shooting: more short mid-range and rim shots, a little less 3-point shooting, and fewer long mid-range shots.
All the numbers in this and in the next tables are the difference between this year percentages in frequency and accuracy and last season’s.
There are ten players this year who have had an increase of at least one percentage point in the two increasing categories and a decrease of at least one percentage point in the two decreasing categories, and they are listed in the table above: the trend setters!
For the Thunder's Aussie, the leader of the growing group in attempts at the rim, the shot selection has gone from 26.87 percent last season to 38.82 percent this season, with 64 percent of attempts scoring, a value higher than that of Scottie Barnes, Anthony Edwards, Morant, and big men such as Steven Adams and JJJ.
His threes per game are down, from 3.9 in his rookie year to 2.9 this year, and his shooting efficiency has improved considerably, however, with an eFG% of 51.5 for the season.
In the game against Utah, for example, he took five open triples, missing them all.
For Cam Thomas, however, the shift to a shorter mid-range has not been matched by his shooting percentages, which have dropped to 39.53 percent from last year's excellent 54.41 percent; probably another year tutored by Kevin Durant would have done him good.
On the other hand, his three-point shooting percentage skyrocketed, coming in at 41.3 after an initial season even below 30 percent.
If there is one thing Cam has shown he can do, especially recently, it is getting buckets, and it will be interesting to see if in the final weeks of the regular season he can carve out a definitive space for himself after so many DNPs before the trade deadline.
Who is just a little far behind?
There are also other players who, regardless of the trend of shots to the rim and long mid-range, have sacrificed shooting from three this year in favor of close mid-range.
Alperen Şengün, the gifted student, took a lesson from Nikola Jokic (37.31% frequency with 60.33% accuracy from short mid-range and only 14% frequency for the three pointers with 39.82% from the field).
For the Turkish, 39% of the shots attempted have come from this position, with 47.37% accuracy, while triples are even confined to 6% of the choices.
About 90% of his attempts are within 14 feet, and he is still quite far from being a stretch five. He remains one of my favorite players to watch, especially in the post and when it comes to crazy good passing skills, and you can learn more about his game in this great Ben Taylor video:
It's strange to think about Trae Young being on this list, but only 33.55% of his attempts this season have been from three, slightly higher than the 32.5% referring to shots taken from the short mid-range.
His efficiency from three has regressed to his rookie season numbers; his SMR efficiency, on the other hand, stands at 45.82%, which is above the NBA average.
He is definitely one of the league's floater kings; look at him drive between the former Suns Bridges and Johnson to seal a close W against the Nets at home—a tough shot in a high-leverage situation for his team.
During his tenure in Cleveland, Larry Nance Jr. had begun shooting triples with increasing frequency, a trend that ended with his two stints in Portland and New Orleans, a team that does not generally lack three-point shooting.
In contrast, he has exceeded 50% accuracy in the short mid-range with 24 percent attempts and is having a good season shooting (when not attacking Brook Lopez as in the attempt below).
And who is going in the opposite direction?
As with any respectable trend, there must be players doing the exact opposite: in our case, taking more threes and shots from the mid-range long range than last year, resulting in fewer attacks on the rim and from the "floater" zone.
There are nine players who have had an increase of at least 1 percent further from the basket and a decrease of at least the same amount closer to the basket.
Harden, due in part to the physical decline sustained in recent years, is disappointing the beloved Daryl Morey by giving up the layup in favor of a few more shots from mid-range (which still remains only 7.66%, but that is twice as much as last season).
Career-best three-point percentage, with attempts lower only than Houston's five super years: he is hitting 39.3% of them and for the first time in his career could end a season with at least 40% from three.
After an underwhelming start to his career, the 5th pick in the 2021 draft, Jalen Suggs, is relying heavily on a three-point shot that still isn't quite trustworthy: almost half of his attempts come from beyond the arc, but only 30% hit the mark.
To think that this value is nine points higher than last year's undoubtedly suggests that the bottom has already been hit in that respect, but there is still much work to do.
With about 20 games remaining to the end of the season, we will see if these trends are confirmed, leading for the first time in recent history to the decline (however slight) in the number of three-point shots taken by teams.